Reply To: 3.2. Scenario Building (AALTO)

RIS3 Forums General 3.2. Scenario Building (AALTO) Reply To: 3.2. Scenario Building (AALTO)



Thank you for the detailed comments. It is true that in practice all these templates would be filled in a workshop or at least with a group of people (not alone). It requires normally desktop research/literature review in order to make sure that all the relevant trends and uncertainties in the region are identified. If one is to do such a work online, it is common to use an online application such as Delphi for doing that.

We have made a number of improvements here:

1) Shorten the text in about page (this to avoid different numbers of steps). We have not 5 steps and 5 templates covering the whole scenario building process. The sixth template “Scenario building process” covers all these 5 templates, and if the texts are filled in that template, they go automatically to the next template avoiding the manual work of transferring them individually (except for impact analyses tool).

2) Added three real scenario work in related documents. One is the recent EU scenario work (where you can also use to identify relevant trends and uncertainties). The two others are done in relation to regional RIS3 work – in Helsinki-Uusimaa, Finland and Lapland, Finland.

3) Added in PEST-template also trends and uncertainties identified in Helsinki-Uusimaa scenario work, these the regions can used as the examples of trends and uncertainties.

Related to the points made in the last comment, our guide already describes what is meant with 0 and 10 in impact analyses tool. If the level of uncertainty is 0, then the issue is not at all uncertain (this is were all the trends would be visible, if added to the impact analyses tool). There are no point for doing that though, as the scenarios are selected based on two uncertainties that have the highest uncertainty and the highest impact. They score for 10 in both or close to it, thus appearing in the right hand upper corner in the matrix.

It is true that we have a lot of text in the guide. However, I think it is quite OK as the information can be viewed step-by-step. I think it is good to have this information for people who are not previously familiar with scenario work. So they can learn the difference between trend and uncertainty, and also where to find such existing information in the web site.

If the pilots need further support, please contact me. I have been as a participant in several, different kinds of scenario workshop and learnt about the method, so I can clarify what feels difficult. There are different ways to conduct scenario work, this one here is just one example and features the basic scenario building process.