3.2. Scenario Building (AALTO)

RIS3 Forums General 3.2. Scenario Building (AALTO)


This topic contains 3 replies, has 4 voices, and was last updated by  mona.roman 1 year, 8 months ago.

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  • #9861


    On Scenario Building

  • #10187


    The guidelines on scenario building are elaborate and comprehensive. It now also includes references to other apps that may feed into this work, thanks for that. The appropriatedness of the developed templates to RIS3 process can be put to pilot assessment. Small changes to make: download button of guidelines should follow a uniform format, so please change “Application guide PDF” to “Download Guide” (see e.g 2.1)

  • #10499


    • Guidelines and options between different scenarios are way too extensive and even the same.
    • Scenario Building process template, Scenario building template do not open when clicking the link.
    • “About” section: describes 5 steps but the circular graph under it presents only 3 steps:
    brings confusion (although both elements are the part of official document “EU guidelines”).
    • “Related documents” section: Upload the missing documents/
    • Design: the PDF guide is not a template and is presented in the same icon as the templates, maybe it could be inserted before the templates and presented in a different manner.
    • Template could be classified by colour accordingly to the 3 elements (or 5 steps) presented in the “About” section/
    • How to collect the templates afterwards? How to use the findings?
    • Tool to share the documents like in the app
    o 2.7 could be useful to insert in each template
    – When clicking on ‘Access to the Application’, you find seven blocks/buttons. The first, ‘Application Guide’, might not belong on this page as it is not part of the actual app. It is better in the ‘about’ or ‘guide’ section.
    – When clicking on ‘Access to the Application’, you find seven blocks/buttons. They all work, except for ‘Impact analysis template’. When you click on this one, you need to login. If you click on login, it doesn’t respond.
    – The app has an extensive ‘about’-page and three guides. This might have a deterring effect, as it seems like a lot to read and like it is a quite complex app/tool. However, it’s not as difficult to understand as it might come across, so it could be simplified.
    – The content of the templates is something so elaborate that can’t really be done by one stakeholder alone – it asks for a large array of collaborating stakeholders together. This app would best be tested and filled in a workshop.
    – “About” page – I know that Access to Application is in yellow due to emphasize it, but I would suggest to e.g. underline page you are on (e.g. About, Guide etc) as it is confusing when looking at the header and it looks like I am on Access to Application page all the time – just a thought (applies to all apps)
    – the unified formatting for all of the apps highly recommended
    – GUIDE: clearly structured according to the guide, but… too long and each step in the guide should be linked to the either PEST Analysis (pdf) or Impact Analysis to be able to see what the guide is talking about
    – => suggestions: Guidance for step 1:
    o Trends and Uncertainties – What is the difference?, Understanding uncertainties with wildcards and weak signals, Gathering the data => ok
    o Using PEST to map uncertainties and trends:
    – doesn’t need to show the print screen of PEST analysis
    – just a link PEST Analysis to pdf file, writable pdf file (NOT NEEDED TO DOWNLOAD IT –as it should be user friendly) with the note “please, save it to your computer when you want it use it further”
    – in PEST Analysis pdf file, every section (i.e. Political factors, enviro factors, social etc.) should have the description written in the table related to it – i.e in grey and being able to delete it when wants to write his/her own/regional i.e. political uncertainties (see below)
    – no further explanation in the guide needed
    – Guidance for step 2/Impact Analysis:
    o Login needed
    o When reading Guide needed to go back and forth between guide and access to application be able to understand what the guide is talkin about… might be easier to provide the “sample” in the guide and the legend to the real Impact Analysis (i.e. uncertainity – scale 0-10 where 0 means… 10 means… ; impact detto)
    o When finishing the Impact Analysis, the circles of important trends, important uncertainties and insignificant should show up somehow to be able to identify those more easily
    – Guidance for step 3-5/Scenario Building:
    o Same applies as for step 1 – writable pdf file would help
    o Plus, if stored somewhere in the previous step, it should be able to fill out some sections automatically
    – ACCESS TO APPLICATION PAGE: – Application guide PDF apparently doesn’t belong there

  • #10579


    Thank you for the detailed comments. It is true that in practice all these templates would be filled in a workshop or at least with a group of people (not alone). It requires normally desktop research/literature review in order to make sure that all the relevant trends and uncertainties in the region are identified. If one is to do such a work online, it is common to use an online application such as Delphi for doing that.

    We have made a number of improvements here:

    1) Shorten the text in about page (this to avoid different numbers of steps). We have not 5 steps and 5 templates covering the whole scenario building process. The sixth template “Scenario building process” covers all these 5 templates, and if the texts are filled in that template, they go automatically to the next template avoiding the manual work of transferring them individually (except for impact analyses tool).

    2) Added three real scenario work in related documents. One is the recent EU scenario work (where you can also use to identify relevant trends and uncertainties). The two others are done in relation to regional RIS3 work – in Helsinki-Uusimaa, Finland and Lapland, Finland.

    3) Added in PEST-template also trends and uncertainties identified in Helsinki-Uusimaa scenario work, these the regions can used as the examples of trends and uncertainties.

    Related to the points made in the last comment, our guide already describes what is meant with 0 and 10 in impact analyses tool. If the level of uncertainty is 0, then the issue is not at all uncertain (this is were all the trends would be visible, if added to the impact analyses tool). There are no point for doing that though, as the scenarios are selected based on two uncertainties that have the highest uncertainty and the highest impact. They score for 10 in both or close to it, thus appearing in the right hand upper corner in the matrix.

    It is true that we have a lot of text in the guide. However, I think it is quite OK as the information can be viewed step-by-step. I think it is good to have this information for people who are not previously familiar with scenario work. So they can learn the difference between trend and uncertainty, and also where to find such existing information in the web site.

    If the pilots need further support, please contact me. I have been as a participant in several, different kinds of scenario workshop and learnt about the method, so I can clarify what feels difficult. There are different ways to conduct scenario work, this one here is just one example and features the basic scenario building process.

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